Costly investments for regionalization and climate change may handcuff economic growth — and investment returns — already restrained by high government debt and aging populations.

While we expect global economic growth to backtrack, inflation should persist. Tight labor markets, regionalization and higher commodity prices will likely more than offset technology’s disinflationary promise. Investors, consumers and policymakers must adapt.

New, more permanent inflationary forces complicate central banks’ abilities to reach their objectives. Over time, we think central banks will ultimately concede inflation modestly higher than their target rather than create undue economic harm.

The deepening U.S.-China strategic rivalry has elevated global political risks, enough to alter fundamentals for investors. Even historically stable political dynamics could shift abruptly and impact equity valuations.

Countries want to cut emissions and improve energy security, so the green energy transition is still a go. But it requires vast amounts of financing and natural resources. Investors must navigate environmental and economic priorities.

Private markets continue to grow, backed by improving liquidity supported by strengthening market infrastructure. Private investments are primed to play an increasingly important role in the economy and investors’ portfolios.